April 2022 Update - $OSS.v, $ISDR, $PSD.to, $ISV.to, $STC.to & $SANG, $FTG.to, $XTC.to, $VMD.to & $VMD, $SYZ.to, $MCB.to, $PZA.to, $MCR.to, $KUT.v, $CPH.to, $GEO.to, $CMG.to, $MRV.to

May 02, 2022

Thoughts on Market Activity

Another interesting month. The focus is on inflation and commodities and whether or not we are in a technical recession. Though I have some exposure via service cos, I am underexposed relative to all the smart traders on Twitter. We went from trolling O&G talking heads to worshiping them in less than 12 months. It’s interesting for sure. My twitter feed is full of reason why oil is high and going higher. As usual, I have no idea what will happen.

As for the tech/software/disruptors carnage, I’m not really doing much. I wasn’t a big believer in many of the business models before covid, and I’m not now. I know everyone thinks their tech stock that crashed 70-80% is Amazon in 2000, but I really don’t know how many of these businesses will be around in 10 years. I have been looking at some names, but haven’t moved money yet. I would be very cautious using sales multiples and referencing any valuation from May 2020 to Dec 2021 in hopes of those returning. As well, if the business was not generating cash before covid, I wouldn’t expect them to do so after.

Many microcaps have been decimated. There is likely some opportunities here.

What I’m Reading

I found this post over at Rational Reflections interesting. I haven’t really considered the switch to full time investing anything like “retiring”. I can attest to the shift in expectations on what happens after you make the change.

Rational Reflections

The Trouble with FIRE

This article is a longer version of a Twitter thread that ended up getting a lot of attention. The good thing about Twitter threads is that they are simple to create. The thread took only ten minutes to write. The problem is that it isn’t possible to fully explain a topic on Twitter without the risk of misunderstandings. This is especially true for complicated topics like financial independence and early retirement…

3 years ago · 11 likes · 3 comments · The Rational Walk

After I have completed my deep work for the day and my body can’t handle any more training, I have found myself drawn to some home projects. I’m at best amateur, but I really do enjoy having a finished product for myself or my family to enjoy. Below is a picture of a play table I made for my kids. Not quite finished, but it is way better than what they had before.

This post over at Fortune Financial is interesting. There is so much potential for me to learn from others doing something completely different from myself.

Podcasts I Enjoyed Over the Last Month

Posts this month

None.

Company Updates

OneSoft Solutions - $OSS.v
- I picked up a few shares this month of OSS
Pulse Seismic - $PSD.to
- Agreement announced with ABMI
  - interesting way to utilize the data library outside traditional use for O&G
- Reported Q1 2022
  - reported the lowest revenue post covid
  - there were very little transactional sales
  - this volatility is expected in the company which is why I use multiple quarters when analyzing the business
  - they are lapping tough comps so unless they have a major transaction sale, we will likely lower year over year revenue
Firan Technology - $FTG.to
- reported fiscal Q1 2022
  - lots of impact from covid with absenteeism and some mandated shut downs
  - they are navigating it well
  - I’m expecting sequential recovery in margins and top line
  - backlog and book to bill trends look positive
- reported the results of the AGM
  - usually I don’t see this as overly meaningful, but I noticed that one director was voted out
  - I found this interesting especially given the ties to Westaim
Exco Technologies - $XTC.to
- reported fiscal Q2 2022
  - a little weaker than I expected
    - I was expecting some impact from supply chain disruptions but not quite as much as they are dealing with
  - sounds like the next few quarters are going to be lumpy
    - supply chain impacting OEM auto production
    - start up costs in Morocco
    - Halex integration
    - Russia/Ukraine indirect exposure
    - China covid lockdowns impacting supply chain
- I picked up a small position with an income focus this month
Viemed - $VMD.to
- there was a video posted by SNN on YouTube recently
Macro Enterprises - $MCR.v
- the go private transaction went through
- happy to see someone find value in these beaten down microcaps but upset at the valuation
- sometimes high insider ownership is a risk
- worth reading Chapter Twelve’s post on the topic
  Chapter Twelve
  Macro Enterprises: Management Laid Pipe and Shareholders Permitted It
  Macro Enterprises, a Western Canadian pipeline construction company, was privatized by management on April 22nd at $4 per share. There is no shortage of bad behaviour in the world of finance, especially in Canada. I would generally avoid writing a story of the “can you believe management did x?”-variety because there are, unfortunately, so many of them…
  Read more
  3 years ago · 3 likes · 1 comment · Chapter Twelve
RediShred Capital - $KUT.v
- reported Q4 2021
  - higher revenue and higher costs than I was expecting so netted out to fairly neutral
  - the thesis is still intact from my perspective

*Long - $OSS.v, $ISDR, $PSD.to, $XTC.to, $VMD.to & $VMD, $KUT.v

Petty Cash

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