Geo Q1 2025 Update - $GEO.to

Firing on all cylinders.

*Disclosure: I own shares in GEO. I am not a professional. Please do your own due diligence.

Price: $3.35 CAD / $2.34 USD

MC: 112 million USD

EV: 107 million USD

1 year performance: +46.9%

GEO reported this morning and had a call. Results were ahead of my expectations and the stock is up 4.6% at time of writing.

*all numbers in USD unless stated otherwise

Quarter Recap

• Record revenue of $48.8M

  • 41% increase compared to Q1 2024

• Record EBITDA of $13.6M

  • 28% of revenue

  • 104% increase compared to Q1 2024

• Rig utilization was at 75%

Call Notes

• Sounds strong across the board

• Q2 sounds like it will be strong as well

• Sounds like they are as full utilization as possible

• The CEO commented that they will see 100 rigs at some point

  • Sounded like by the end of the year, but he was hesitant to commit to it as there are many moving pieces

• There was nothing formal announced about the dividend, but I got the sense that the dividend will come back this year

Valuation

I have them at 3.3 EV/ttm EBITDA. I have them just under 3x EV/my estimated 2025 EBITDA.

Closing Thoughts

GEO is a nice fit. I wish Sustainable would finish selling or find a block to get their position where they want it. I would imagine that there would be some institution looking for increased gold exposure here.

In the meantime, I will let the business and management execute with the anticipation that the shares will respond appropriately. I think once we punch through the $3.50 mark (which is the high from 2023) we have room to run.

Thanks for reading.

Dean

* long GEO.to