May I point out that they never operated in Russia ? You might have confused them with Foraco.
As an add on on exits, they cease operations last quarter in Mali which is another West African problematic country. Luckily, without incurring any losses as per the MD&A.
What is your take on Sustainable Capital that seems relentless in their selling ? They sold 600,000 of their stake since resuming selling in November over a 4 months period. While I do not believe they have any insights into operations, i just wonder if they will keep on selling and have no idea as to their strategy both in term of daily volume or final end game. OGD majority shareholder Alexandre was able to sell 1 M shares in a month in February/March and was taken out quickly with a block trade. In term of value this is 1.8 M versus $ 1.1 but GEO market cap is more than double OGD's.
On this quarter, Harper pretty much committed himself on a Radius interview after the year end release when he did mentioned something about shooting the lights out quarter/year or something to that effect. And he sure did mention that he would not mind selling in an interview a couple of years ago.
Anyway, with gold at the current price of gold and financing for juniors appearing to open up, would not be surprised to see fights to get a drill with a nice rerate on drilling rates. And with energy price trending lower (the other major cost for drillers after employees cost), we could have a double whammy : increase utilization rate, and increased margin ( Higher Rates and lower costs). Make it a triple whammy.
You are right. I had FAR in my mind when thinking about Russia.
As for Sustainable, it sucks in the short term. I am not sure what their rationale is for selling here. I would hope they have approached the company to help arrange a block trade as I can't see it being hard to arrange one here. Like you said, gold is doing well. I would suspect there would be many interested in taking a large position at this price. I also noticed the OGD shareholder able to get liquidity.
I have been thinking about business performance vs stock performance and how to position the bet. At least we have a reason for the share price being flat vs the price of gold. The selling seems to be anytime there is a bid to fill. TIKR shows that it's now 4% of their holdings so I wonder if they are just blowing out the position.
I'm hoping for the triple whammy but will settle for the double whammy lol.
One interesting aspect of the drilling industry : it usually takes 6 months from the time a financing is done by an junior/explorer to the actual drilling itself and therefore drillers getting paid. So we should expect a delayed reaction.
Buying the pick and shovel stocks when the miners should be flush with cash (and they should be right now) is an interesting avenue. Have you researched the others microcaps (I own some OGD ?) Or ancillary services like Chrysos and their Photon Assay business on the ASX ?
A way to play it was CAPD, a driller with lab operations (MSALabs) trading in London but management screwed up recently. Parragon is going public with their lab business but the investors in the venture could be questionnable and the CEO manage 2 companies. Do you plan to see them in Vegas (if you go), would love to have feedback.
I took a look at OGD when I was researching GEO. I liked GEO better due to the balance sheet. At the time OGD's financials didn't look as stellar to me as GEO's did.
I noticed the drop in CAPD. Was that related to the CEO resigning and the receivables provision? Or more with the weakish guide for H1 2025?
I didn't even notice MSALabs was here in Vegas. I'll see if I can shoehorn in a meeting with them.
Yeah they took a write off for the Mali operations similar to what GEO did when they exited Burkina. The CEO resigned over the delays with their big contract in Nevada (drilling and labs for Barrick). And I guess that doubling down on mining operations with Barrick in Pakistan was not the outcome that investors wanted as these are quite capital intensive. So no capital returned at the end of the Centamin Contract in Egypt as well as as the big contract canned with Fortescue iron mine in Gabon. I exited as I have some lingering doubts with Boynton (the ex ceo turned chairman coming back as ceo), trying to reconcile how he could have so many shares in Predictive Discoveries when Capital sold their stake to Perseus Mining. Anyway, you can not win them all.
MSALabs will not be there. Paragon Advanced will be there, spun out from Britannia Lab. I know that Quinton Henning is involved in that one, some people do not like him in the Mining Tweetosphere,. The CEO is keeping his role with Britannia Lab, saw him on an Andreolo youtube video. Love the idea of PhotonAssay as a disruptor, just wonder if it is enough to be succesfull. They did do a 10-1 split going public, so initial investors, as usual in the Junior world are sitting quite pretty.
Thanks Dean....interesting investment possibility.....would mention that these old eyes cannot 'read' the charts with black backgrounds......were they larger, then maybe....the charts with white backgrounds and bold coloured lines were great. Cheers
Hey thanks for the comment. I didn't realize how hard they were to see. Something gets missed when I take a screenshot and paste it here. I will be more mindful and make sure the chart is clearer.
The first 3 charts with the black background show the performance of gold miners (GDX) and gold trust (GLD) over 1, 3 and 5 years.
1year - GLD is +38%, GDX is +58%
3 year - GLD is +66%, GDX is +25%
5 year - GLD is +89%, GDX is +65%
The last chart shows how GEO's valuation stacks up relative to it's peers. It basically shows that it trades at a discount. Not a large discount to other small players, but a large discount to MDI (a much larger player).
Hope that helps and thanks again for the comment and feedback.
Thanks Dean for this,
May I point out that they never operated in Russia ? You might have confused them with Foraco.
As an add on on exits, they cease operations last quarter in Mali which is another West African problematic country. Luckily, without incurring any losses as per the MD&A.
What is your take on Sustainable Capital that seems relentless in their selling ? They sold 600,000 of their stake since resuming selling in November over a 4 months period. While I do not believe they have any insights into operations, i just wonder if they will keep on selling and have no idea as to their strategy both in term of daily volume or final end game. OGD majority shareholder Alexandre was able to sell 1 M shares in a month in February/March and was taken out quickly with a block trade. In term of value this is 1.8 M versus $ 1.1 but GEO market cap is more than double OGD's.
On this quarter, Harper pretty much committed himself on a Radius interview after the year end release when he did mentioned something about shooting the lights out quarter/year or something to that effect. And he sure did mention that he would not mind selling in an interview a couple of years ago.
Anyway, with gold at the current price of gold and financing for juniors appearing to open up, would not be surprised to see fights to get a drill with a nice rerate on drilling rates. And with energy price trending lower (the other major cost for drillers after employees cost), we could have a double whammy : increase utilization rate, and increased margin ( Higher Rates and lower costs). Make it a triple whammy.
GLTA
Thanks for the comment.
You are right. I had FAR in my mind when thinking about Russia.
As for Sustainable, it sucks in the short term. I am not sure what their rationale is for selling here. I would hope they have approached the company to help arrange a block trade as I can't see it being hard to arrange one here. Like you said, gold is doing well. I would suspect there would be many interested in taking a large position at this price. I also noticed the OGD shareholder able to get liquidity.
I have been thinking about business performance vs stock performance and how to position the bet. At least we have a reason for the share price being flat vs the price of gold. The selling seems to be anytime there is a bid to fill. TIKR shows that it's now 4% of their holdings so I wonder if they are just blowing out the position.
I'm hoping for the triple whammy but will settle for the double whammy lol.
Thanks again.
Dean
One interesting aspect of the drilling industry : it usually takes 6 months from the time a financing is done by an junior/explorer to the actual drilling itself and therefore drillers getting paid. So we should expect a delayed reaction.
Buying the pick and shovel stocks when the miners should be flush with cash (and they should be right now) is an interesting avenue. Have you researched the others microcaps (I own some OGD ?) Or ancillary services like Chrysos and their Photon Assay business on the ASX ?
A way to play it was CAPD, a driller with lab operations (MSALabs) trading in London but management screwed up recently. Parragon is going public with their lab business but the investors in the venture could be questionnable and the CEO manage 2 companies. Do you plan to see them in Vegas (if you go), would love to have feedback.
I took a look at OGD when I was researching GEO. I liked GEO better due to the balance sheet. At the time OGD's financials didn't look as stellar to me as GEO's did.
I noticed the drop in CAPD. Was that related to the CEO resigning and the receivables provision? Or more with the weakish guide for H1 2025?
I didn't even notice MSALabs was here in Vegas. I'll see if I can shoehorn in a meeting with them.
Yeah they took a write off for the Mali operations similar to what GEO did when they exited Burkina. The CEO resigned over the delays with their big contract in Nevada (drilling and labs for Barrick). And I guess that doubling down on mining operations with Barrick in Pakistan was not the outcome that investors wanted as these are quite capital intensive. So no capital returned at the end of the Centamin Contract in Egypt as well as as the big contract canned with Fortescue iron mine in Gabon. I exited as I have some lingering doubts with Boynton (the ex ceo turned chairman coming back as ceo), trying to reconcile how he could have so many shares in Predictive Discoveries when Capital sold their stake to Perseus Mining. Anyway, you can not win them all.
MSALabs will not be there. Paragon Advanced will be there, spun out from Britannia Lab. I know that Quinton Henning is involved in that one, some people do not like him in the Mining Tweetosphere,. The CEO is keeping his role with Britannia Lab, saw him on an Andreolo youtube video. Love the idea of PhotonAssay as a disruptor, just wonder if it is enough to be succesfull. They did do a 10-1 split going public, so initial investors, as usual in the Junior world are sitting quite pretty.
Thanks,
Thanks Dean....interesting investment possibility.....would mention that these old eyes cannot 'read' the charts with black backgrounds......were they larger, then maybe....the charts with white backgrounds and bold coloured lines were great. Cheers
Hey thanks for the comment. I didn't realize how hard they were to see. Something gets missed when I take a screenshot and paste it here. I will be more mindful and make sure the chart is clearer.
The first 3 charts with the black background show the performance of gold miners (GDX) and gold trust (GLD) over 1, 3 and 5 years.
1year - GLD is +38%, GDX is +58%
3 year - GLD is +66%, GDX is +25%
5 year - GLD is +89%, GDX is +65%
The last chart shows how GEO's valuation stacks up relative to it's peers. It basically shows that it trades at a discount. Not a large discount to other small players, but a large discount to MDI (a much larger player).
Hope that helps and thanks again for the comment and feedback.
Dean